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UNEMPLOYMENT / DEC. 30, 2013
version 5, draft 5

UK to Become Europe's Largest Economy by 2030

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Britain will overtake Germany and France to be Europe’s top economy by 2030, according to the Center for Economic and Business Research. The think tank’s latest World Economic League Table report indicates that the UK is on track to become the West’s second best performing economy and forecasts that the country is set to strengthen in the years ahead.

The UK will be only major Western economy to move up the league table, temporarily, to overtake France and become the world’s fifth largest economy by 2017. However, it will eventually fall into seventh place when it is overtaken by India and Brazil in 2023 and 2028 respectively. This still leaves the country in a good position to become the largest in Europe, as the UK’s population growth helps to support economic acceleration.

The UK’s GDP is anticipated to grow from more than £1.59 trillion in 2013 to £2.6 trillion in 2028, compared to China which is predicted to be in top position with a GDP of more than £20.5 trillion, ahead of the US with an estimated £19.7 trillion.

The Business Sector is Expected to Grow

The long-term prospects for business services are promising and demand is expected to continue to grow at a faster rate than the wider economy. Within the separate sub-sectors of business services demand is likely to increase in the mid to long term. A main factor of growth is the fact that business services provide key support to industries like financial services, which are expected to remain major players in the UK economy.

Employment in the business and other services sector is expected to rise. Demand for the sectors included in business services is likely to increase, in most cases creating the need for greater employment. Employment growth in this sector is forecast to be 1.3 % per year over the period 2010-20 and the share of the sector in total UK jobs will climb to more than 31%.

Slow but Steady Employment Growth

As far as the employment prospects are concerned, these there will be a slow recovery from recession, with the UK economy generating around 1, 5 million additional jobs by 2020. According to the Report for the Resolution Foundation prepared by the Institute for Employment Research at the University of Warwick, the total employment is projected to be 32.4 million in 2020. This translates into an increase of around 0.5 per cent per year between 2010 and 2020.

What’s more, the Working Futures 2010-2020 Report argues there is forecast to be a continued trend of employment growth in higher skilled, white collar occupations, including managers, professionals and associate professional roles. The study estimates 2 million additional jobs in these occupations by 2020.

All in all, despite the UK’s economic future seems bright; with the nation’s GDP growing significantly by 2028, the general employment prospects are marked by a slow but gradual growth with more development predicted in high-skilled job sectors.

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